Sunday - September 16, 2007

Did They or Didn't They: Israel's Attack On Syria's Nuclear Program? 

All we know for sure, so far, is that Syria complained that Israeli F-15s violated their airspace on September 6th. The Israelis won't confirm or deny events and Syrians haven't said much since first complaining. So what happened.

The Jerusalem Post has this to say, which really, isn't much:

Since the alleged flyover, Israeli and Syrian leaders have kept mum as to what really happened over the skies of northern Syria on September 6, when Syrian air defenses allegedly opened fire on a group of Israeli F-15I bombers.

While the picture is still not completely clear, and has certainly not been confirmed by official Israeli or Syrian authorities, the story that is emerging in the foreign press is the stuff of legends.

Fighter jets, coming under air defense missiles, infiltrate an enemy country and bomb a nuclear facility that is being "lit up" for them by an elite commando unit operating behind enemy lines.

If the foreign news reports are true, Israel has a lot to be concerned about - not only is Iran racing towards nuclear power but so is Syria.

Syria is known to have a large stockpile of chemical and biological warheads and, according to the news reports, it has forged a partnership with North Korea to possibly develop a nuclear capability as well. For years now, the Israeli public has heard that one of the consequences of Iran's success in defying the world and developing nuclear power was that other Middle Eastern countries would follow suit. This is a case example.

Syria's relationship with North Korea is nothing new. According to foreign reports, Syria possesses some 100 Scud-C missiles that it has bought from North Korea over the last 15 years.

Some Syrian and Hizbullah reports have claimed that the alleged air foray was actually a test run by Israel for the real show - Iran. While the foreign media reports clearly dismiss that possibility - pointing out that the IAF bombed a Syrian target - if the reports are true then the alleged incident does send a clear message to Iran that Israel will not hesitate to use force to stop its enemies from obtaining nuclear power. The precedent Menachem Begin set with the bombing of the Osirak reactor in Iraq in 1981 is still in effect.

Assad has his own interests in keeping quiet. While Syria was the one to reveal the alleged IAF infiltration, the country has held back from giving any additional details of what happened over its skies that night. Assad might have had to reveal that there was an infiltration due to the large number of eyewitness accounts. No more details are being provided, however, since while Assad has struck a strategic alliance with pariah states like Iran and North Korea, he misses the days when he enjoyed close ties with France and other Western countries. 

The UK's, Times Online seems to have more facts, but how reliable are they?

Andrew Semmel, a senior US State Department official, said Syria might have obtained nuclear equipment from “secret suppliers”, and added that there were a “number of foreign technicians” in the country.

Asked if they could be North Korean, he replied: “There are North Korean people there. There’s no question about that.” He said a network run by AQ Khan, the disgraced creator of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons, could be involved.

But why would nuclear material be in Syria? Known to have chemical weapons, was it seeking to bolster its arsenal with something even more deadly?

Alternatively, could it be hiding equipment for North Korea, enabling Kim Jong-il to pretend to be giving up his nuclear programme in exchange for economic aid? Or was the material bound for Iran, as some authorities in America suggest?

According to Israeli sources, preparations for the attack had been going on since late spring, when Meir Dagan, the head of Mossad, presented Olmert with evidence that Syria was seeking to buy a nuclear device from North Korea.

The Israeli spy chief apparently feared such a device could eventually be installed on North-Korean-made Scud-C missiles.

“This was supposed to be a devastating Syrian surprise for Israel,” said an Israeli source. “We’ve known for a long time that Syria has deadly chemical warheads on its Scuds, but Israel can’t live with a nuclear warhead.”

An expert on the Middle East, who has spoken to Israeli participants in the raid, told yesterday’s Washington Post that the timing of the raid on September 6 appeared to be linked to the arrival three days earlier of a ship carrying North Korean material labelled as cement but suspected of concealing nuclear equipment.

The target was identified as a northern Syrian facility that purported to be an agricultural research centre on the Euphrates river. Israel had been monitoring it for some time, concerned that it was being used to extract uranium from phosphates.

According to an Israeli air force source, the Israeli satellite Ofek 7, launched in June, was diverted from Iran to Syria. It sent out high-quality images of a northeastern area every 90 minutes, making it easy for air force specialists to spot the facility.

Author: The Machiavellian
Technorati Tags: Israel Syria
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